Five months to the end of the Formula One 2013 season, and here I take the bold step of making five predictions that should (or will) come true by the end of the year.
First, Sebastian Vettel will win his 4th consecutive F1 Drivers’ Championship. He will join the greats, Fangio and Schumacher, in the record books and will make the feats of Alonso, Hamilton, Raikkonen and Button look ordinary. After much pondering following last month’s Canadian GP, I get the sense that the tide has shifted in favour of Red Bull Racing. I don’t know if it’s Red Bull Racing that has done all the hard work, or if it’s Ferrari and Lotus who haven’t. But, on a track where Red Bull has traditionally suffered (Canada), both Ferrari and Lotus, instead of making inroads into Red Bull’s lead, actually ended up losing further ground.
Ferrari and Alonso have claimed back a 30-plus points deficit in previous seasons, but in 2013 they seem to be getting caught off guard more than usual. It’s ironic that when Ferrari have a quick car, they end up making silly errors on the pit-wall. What’s even more ironic is that these errors are being committed by the most experienced team in Formula 1. Moreover, they have the firepower (read: money) to hire the best brains in business. Lotus, on the other hand, are struggling to make ends meet (their recent stake sale will hopefully help them), and their championship challenge is more Raikkonen than the car. Which leads me to my next prediction.
Second, Raikkonen to leave Lotus for another team. While they managed to lure the Iceman back to Formula 1 from rallying a couple of years ago, the team certainly hasn’t delivered on their promise – a world championship winning car. Make no mistake, the Lotus is one of the most efficient machines on the grid, especially in regards to tyre management, but they seem to lose out in the development race as the season progresses. One of the primary reasons for this, of course, is budgets.
Having made the prediction that Raikkonen will leave Lotus for another team, the question, of course, is which team will it be? Given that it has to be a team capable of winning a world championship, there are only a few to consider, and Ferrari isn’t one of them. Would Red Bull Racing replace Webber with Raikkonen for 2014? Will Vettel let that happen? Or will McLaren consider replacing either Perez or Button for the Iceman? The likelihood of either is very slim, but then again this is the world of Formula 1 – and, as the saying goes, ‘The easiest component to replace in a car is the driver.’
Third, Rosberg will finish ahead of Hamilton in the Drivers’ Championship, which means that he will probably be the first teammate in Hamilton’s career to have finished ahead of him in the Championship. And credit for this should be given to Rosberg, who, despite having won no championships himself, raised his game to beat Michael Schumacher three years in a row, and has now done the same to beat his current (and much celebrated) teammate, Lewis Hamilton. Now this would be quite a feat, and payback for the treatment in Malaysia.
Fourth, Sahara Force India to finish ahead of McLaren in the Constructors’ Championship, and this is probably where I’m getting ahead of myself. But I’ve allowed myself one prediction that’s more emotion than logic. The Indian F1 team has had their best start to an F1 season ever, and is literally knocking on the doorstep of a podium finish. Both their drivers have shown fine form to outscore teams like McLaren – although they have been plagued by bad luck in a few GP’s. I expect this to be the team’s toughest challenge in 2013, and, given that there are few million dollars extra in the taking for finishing 5th, I trust that McLaren will give their best for both pride as well as for money.
Fifth, Felipa Massa to be replaced by Ferrari for either Jules Bianchi or Nico Hulkenberg. Bianchi has done a good job in the Marussia, however Chilton’s under-performance isn’t really a benchmark for comparison. Having said that, Ferrari may feel that Bianchi needs a few more years under his belt before being considered to partner Alonso? Or would they bring him in early to learn from Alonso, as he plans his exit from the team, and sport, in 2016 (not confirmed of course)? On the other hand, Hulkenberg, who is probably ruing his switch from Sahara Force India to Sauber, has shown fine form and is more experienced than the Frenchman. Will he move in to replace Massa, or will a bad season in Sauber, where the C32 is not performing, dent his chances? The other name doing the rounds is that of Kamui Kobayashi. After all, it is a Ferrari drive that we’re talking about, so expect many rumours to do the rounds before the actual announcement is made.
The fun part of making predictions is that they could go either way. However, I am expecting most of these to swing my way by, or before, the end of 2013. Where do you think I’ll go wrong?
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