Will Johann Zarco's move to join Red Bull KTM Racing change his fortunes? More importantly, where does it leave the rest of the factory riders? Here's a detailed analysis . . .
It’s confirmed! Johan Zarco is moving to Red Bull KTM Factory team in 2019. The Frenchman has signed a two-year deal with the Austrian firm, where he will team up with Pol Espargaro. Now while this a big news in itself, the more interesting thing will be to see how Zarco’s move affects the rest of the factory riders.
A Rookie Sensation
Zarco made his MotoGP debut in 2017 with Tech 3 Yamaha Racing. From his very first outing in the premier class, it was evident that Zarco was the next big thing in MotoGP. Sure, he did end up in gravel in his first race in Qatar, but over the rest of the season, Zarco emerged as a formidable force, as the Tech 3 rider consistently outclassed factory Yamaha boys. It wasn’t then surprising that he also claimed the 2017 Rookie of the Year title.
After his phenomenal MotoGP debut, it was clear that Zarco deserves a full factory support. At the beginning of 2018, there were rumours that Movistar Yamaha was planning to rope him into the factory squad. However, that didn’t happen, as Yamaha recently renewed the contracts of Maverick Vinales and Valentino Rossi till 2020. It may have come as a bit of a disappointment for Zarco. In fact, Tech 3 Racing’s team principal, Herve Poncharal, too hinted that the lack of support from factory team is what prompted Tech 3 to part ways with Yamaha. And as a result, Tech 3 is now joining hands with KTM racing next year.
Why KTM?
After both the factory Yamaha seats were gone, Zarco reportedly had offers from Repsol Honda, Suzuki and KTM. At one point it looked like Zarco was all set to join Marc Marquez at Honda. However, it’s reported that Zarco turned that deal down, owing to the fact that he might be treated as number 2 rider at the Honda camp. That’s kind of understood because the combination of Marquez and Honda is unstoppable right now.
As for Suzuki, Zarco shares a bit of a history, or rather bad memories, with the racing team from Hamamatsu. And that's because in 2016, Suzuki had signed a deal with Zarco to provide him with a provisional ride in 2017 MotoGP season. In fact, Zarco got his first taste of a MotoGP bike when he tested the Suzuki GSX-RR in Japan. Suzuki, however, changed their mind at the last moment and hired Alex Rins and Andrea Iannone instead. Zarco, fortunately, was roped in by Tech 3 Yamaha, but he hasn't probably forgotten how Suzuki backtracked on their promises.
Unlike Suzuki, KTM's progress has been rather slow.
As expected, when Suzuki offered Zarco a seat for 2019-20, the offer was rejected. Was it a sensible decision? It may not seem like that at the moment since Suzuki has exhibited a steady improvement in its machinery. Out of the first three races this year, both Rins and Iannone have been on the podium on two occasions. Plus, the Suzuki bikes look quite stable and agile even around the trickiest of corners. In comparison, KTM’s progress can be described as stagnant at best. They haven’t really shown dramatic improvements over last year, and it appears that the Austrian firm will have their work cut out at the remaining races in 2018. Plus, with Zarco onboard from next year, they face an uphill task to meet the expectations of the Frenchman. Whatever it takes though, they are expected to deliver.
The Butterfly Effect
Zarco’s move to KTM has the rider market wide open yet again. You see, Repsol Honda may not have been able to convince Zarco, but it seems that they’re all set to end the 13-year partnership with Dani Pedrosa. Rumours are rife that Pedrosa won’t be at Repsol Honda from next year onwards. And if that happens, it may be a bit surprising, for sure. Pedrosa may not have a championship title to brag about, but he still belongs to the top tier, as he's been a consistent visitor to the podiums. It won't be wrong to say that he's one of the top five MotoGP riders at the moment. Plus, he’s an ideal team-player for Marquez.
Anyhow, if Pedrosa is to go, the question is, who’ll replace him? Maybe, LCR Honda’s Cal Crutchlow will finally have his prayers answered, or could it be someone else? Only time will tell.
After things didn’t go as planned with Zarco this year, Suzuki is apparently in talks with Jorge Lorenzo now. And if this deal does fall into place as speculated, it’ll be good news for both parties. For Lorenzo, he’ll be able to get on a bike that’ll match his smooth and high-corner-speed riding style, and, more importantly, he’ll have a chance to get over his struggles, which presently seem never-ending at Ducati. And, what will Suzuki get in return? An experienced rider with three world championship titles!
Lorenzo seems all set to join Suzuki, but there's no clear answer regarding Pedrosa's future yet.
If Lorenzo moves to Suzuki, it’s likely that he’ll be replacing Iannone, while Rins will stay. Iannone will again have to look for a ride, and this time it looks unlikely that he’ll get a factory seat. A likely possibility is that he might end up with Marc VDS team, which in all likelihood, is going to partner with Suzuki for the next three years.
The only factory rides that haven’t been officially taken at the moment are the two seats at factory Ducati. If Lorenzo leaves, Ducati will ensure that they keep Andrea Dovisiozo onboard, no matter how much it costs. And that should be the case because Dovizioso is the only rider since Stoner who has consistently won races on a Ducati. As for who’ll replace Lorenzo? There’s a strong possibility of Danilo Petrucci moving up the ranks from Pramac Ducati to the factory team. However, speculations going the rounds suggest that Pedrosa, Crutchlow and Iannone are also in the hunt for a factory Ducati ride.
It seems likely that something like the butterfly effect is to follow Zarco’s decision, but we will have to wait to see how it all unfolds. Whatever happens, one thing is certain that it’s far from over.
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